AlertsUSA Threat Journal - December 29, 2011

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December 29 , 2011

THE HEADLINES

Alert Details: Iran Raises Tensions With Threats and War games
AlertsUSA Alerts Issued December 27, 2011

If Iran Moves, the USA Has No Plan for an Oil Interruption
December 28, 2011

Occupy the (MLK) Dream + Occupy the Federal Reserve, Jan 16, 2012
December 20, 2011

Alert Details:

On Dec 27, 2011, AlertsUSA issued the following Flash Messages to subscribers:

December 27
Iranian VP Rahimi issues threat: "If sanctions are adopted against Iranian oil, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz." Developing..

December 27
Al Arabiya reporting Iranian ships and aircraft are deploying mines in the sea east of the Straights of Hormuz.

Some additional info:

A media account detailing Rahimi's threats can be found here.
The Al Arabiya article reporting Iranian ships deploying mines can be found here.
Sources with the U.S. DoD report that the mines being deployed were fakes.
A second Iranian official, Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayari, has also chimed in stating that closing the Straights of Hormuz would be as easy as "drinking a glass of water".
The U.S. Navy states that Iran's threat to block the strategically and economically important Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable.

"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated." and "the U.S. is ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."

The Straits of Hormuz is 34 miles wide at it's narrowest point. The traffic lane is a scant six miles wide and is comprised of two two-mile lanes (one inbound, one outbound) with a two mile wide separation median. For large vessels, these are very confined waters.
Saudi Arabia has followed Iran's threat stating they would make up any shortfall.
The Obama administration this week announced the sale of $30 billion worth of arms to Saudi Arabia, a bitter rival of Iran. The package includes a 84 new fighter jets, upgrades for 70 more, helicopters, missiles, bombs and delivery systems, as well as radar and night-vision systems. Congress approved the deal last year.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is scheduled to visit Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua and Ecuador in January, 2012.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta this week warned that Iran is one year away - if not less - from a nuclear weapon.
Congressman and Presidential Candidate Ron Paul of Texas has stated that western sanctions against Iran are themselves "acts of war", likely to lead to an actual war. He also says that Iran would be justified in blocking the Strait of Hormuz and compared the western sanctions to a hypothetical move by China to block the Gulf of Mexico, which Americans would consider an act of war. He also said that if he were President, he would not respond militarily to keep the strait open, but would report to Congress and let them choose to declare war, as the Constitution instructs.

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If Iran Moves, the USA Has No Plan for an Oil Interruption
December 19, 2011

The crude realities:

"America uses approximately 19 to 20 million barrels of oil per day, almost 70 % of which is imported."

"If we lose just 1 million barrels per day, or suffer the type of damage sustained from Hurricane Katrina, the government will open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which offers a mere 6 to 8 week supply of unrefined crude oil."

"If we lose 1.5 million barrels per day, or approximately 7.5 %, we will ask our allies in the 28-member International Energy Agency to open their SPRs and otherwise assist."

"If we lose 2 million barrels per day, or 10% for a protracted period of time, government crisis monitors say the chaos will be so catastrophic they cannot even model it."

What you need to know:

According to the author, no federal, state or local government has developed a contingency plan in the event of a protracted oil cut-off.
The ability of Saudi Arabia to boost production and make up for shortfalls if Iran manages to shut down the Persian Gulf is all fine and nice, but hampered by the fact that they have few oil terminals located outside of the Persian Gulf. Check out this map.
American allies have developed oil contingency legislation and plans that will permit their nations to survive a stoppage. Their measures include severe traffic reductions, enabling fast alternative fuel production, mass vehicle fuel retrofitting and public transit enhancement.
Despite a formidable U.S. and allied military presence in the Persian Gulf region, the simple fact remains that Iran is fully capable of not only raising havoc with traffic through the straits, but also raining missiles on key oil terminals and refineries lining the opposite side of the Persian Gulf.
Even small skirmish's will send the price of oil soaring.

Editors Note :

Problems with Iran are not new, nor are the known dangers of supply disruptions at the three major oil and gas choke points around the region. With this in mind, one has to wonder why the current administration would be so steadfast about continued obstruction of exploration, production and pipeline projects here at home?

Read the full article HERE .

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OWS Partners with African-American Faith Community for Occupy the Federal Reserve, January 16th, 2012
December 21, 2011

The juicy parts:

"The Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement has announced a partnership with the African-American faith community in the launch of a "new campaign for economic justice inspired by the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.."

Known as the “Occupy the Dream” coalition, the group(s) are calling for a National Day of Action on Martin Luther King Day – Monday, January 16, 2012 – when they will “Occupy the Federal Reserve,” in multiple cities nationwide, focusing attention on "the gross injustice visited upon the 99% by the financial elite."

The group(s) are planning many additional actions "leading up to a mass gathering in Washington D.C., to be held April 4 – 7, when millions will unite in celebration of the life and legacy of Dr King."

What you need to know:

This will be an interesting partnership to watch unfold as the inherent racial sensitivities associated with many MLK celebrations will test a variety of social boundaries.
It is telling that acknowledged leaders across the African-American faith and civil rights communities, including Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, are supporting the effort.
The locations of all Federal Reserve Banks, and thus the locations of the protests on Jan 16, can be found here.

Read more about the protests HERE and HERE .

COMING IN 2012 !

In Case You Missed It

Beginning in 2012, we will be adding a mid-week sidecar publication to Threat Journal known as ' In Case You Missed It'. Each issue will be a selection of links to important stories that have popped onto the radar since the last issue of Threat Journal, in case you missed them.

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Sincerely,

The Threat Journal Team

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