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February 25, 2023
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WEEKLY THREAT AND ALERT ROUNDUP
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05.09.2021: A parade of military equipment in central Moscow celebrating Victory Day. — Photo by ferion via DepositPhotos.com. - ALLOW IMAGES

Putin Suspends Major Nuclear Treaty With The U.S.
Vows to Strengthen Nuclear Forces

February 25, 2023
Between Feb 19-23, the following related Flash SMS
messages were sent to AlertsUSA subscriber mobile devices:

2/19 - US Embassy Russia issues security alert warning Americans to avoid large events related to the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine on 2/24. See email.

2/23 - US Embassy Ukraine issues security alert warning of an ongoing heightened threat of missile attacks across the country, incl Kyiv & Kyiv Oblast. More via email.

 
What You Need To Know

Early this week AlertsUSA subscribers were informed of a security alert issued by the U.S. Embassy in Moscow warning any Americans still in Russia to avoid all political or social protests related to this week's first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine and to not photograph security personnel at these events. The embassy was also refreshingly blunt in their recommended actions, saying do not travel to Russia, and if you are already there, make plans to leave.

During an annual address before the Federal Assembly on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he was suspending Moscow’s participation in the New START treaty, the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control pact.

"I am compelled to announce today that Russia is suspending its membership in the New START Treaty. To reiterate, we are not withdrawing from the Treaty, but rather suspending our participation."

He continues:

"We know the truth. We are aware of the fact that certain types of US nuclear weapons are reaching the end of their service life. In this regard, we know for certain that some politicians in Washington are already pondering live nuclear tests, especially since the United States is developing innovative nuclear weapons."

"Given these circumstances, the Defence Ministry and Rosatom must make everything ready for Russia to conduct nuclear tests. We will not be the first to proceed with these tests, but if the United States goes ahead with them, we will as well. No one should harbour dangerous illusions that global strategic parity can be disrupted."

Secretary of State Blinken slammed Putin’s move, calling it “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible.”

Failed ICBM Test

It is interesting to note that Putin's speech was delivered on the same day Joe Biden was in Poland for his own speech marking the one-year anniversary of the invasion, and one day after Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv. Even more interesting.... CNN was first to report that at the same time Biden was in Kyiv, Russia carried out a test launch of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, and that missile test appears to have failed.

The Sarmat is one of six new Russian strategic weapons unveiled by Putin in 2018. The first test flight was in April of 2022. This is a silo-based, 3-stage, liquid-fueled, 10+ nuclear warhead platform that includes penetration aids used to evade missile defenses. The Sarmat is reported to have a short boost phase and a range of 11,000 miles, enabling it to fly trajectories over the southern hemisphere.

Putin briefly mentioned the Sarmat program during his Tuesday speech, saying the missiles would be deployed this year.

Medvedev Threatens Poland

Former Russian president and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev this week stated that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

His comments Friday coincided with Poland’s first delivery of over a dozen German-made Leopard II tanks to Ukraine

AlertsUSA continues to monitor the domestic and international threat environment around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers, via SMS messages to their mobile devices, of new alerts, warnings and advisories or any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.


AlertsUSA.com

SMS ALERTS FROM THIS WEEK
NOT DETAILED IN THIS NEWSLETTER ISSUE

2/19 - At least four injured in a mass shooting at the Mardi Gras Bacchus parade, St. Charles & Terpsichore St., New Orleans, LA. Shooter at large. Monitoring..

2/20 - M6.4 earthquake, 16 km WSW of Antakya, Turkey (western Turkey-Syria border region). AlertsUSA monitoring for damage reports.

2/22 - AlertsUSA monitoring response to fire in uranium process facility, Y-12 Nat'l Security Complex, Oak Ridge, TN. Authorities report no off-site impact or danger.

2/22 - Multiple 6.8 earthquakes, 67 km W of Murghob, Tajikistan (Tajik-Xinjiang border region). AlertsUSA monitoring for damage reports. Add'l alerts as warranted.

2/22 - Active shooter report, Whidbey Island Naval Air station, Oak Harbor, WA. Large police response. Base locked down. Monitoring..

2/22 - Lockdown lifted at Whidbey Island NAS following report of possible gunfire. All locations cleared, no threat found. Base operations are resuming as normal.

2/23 - M6.4 earthquake,177 km N of Tobelo, Indonesia. AlertsUSA monitoring for damage reports and tsunami warnings.

 
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Sweden has agreed to transfer 51 CV90 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (shown in the image), Archer Self-Propelled Guns and NLAW anti-tank weapons to Ukraine.  Image:  Jorchr via Wikipedia per CC BY-SA 3.0.  - ALLOW IMAGES

Ukraine War Update+

February 10, 2023
What You Need To Know

According to the Institute for the Study of War:

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and has not made significant territorial gains since July 2022.

A Russian source capitalized on China's release of a 12-point peace plan to inaccurately portray China as supporting Russia's war in Ukraine.

US intelligence reportedly assesses that China is seriously considering sending weapons to Russia amidst continued pressure from Western sanctions regimes on Russia's defense industrial base (DIB).

The Kremlin escalated its information conditions-setting for a possible false-flag operation in Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence:

There have not been any reports of Iranian one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs) being used in Ukraine since around 15 February 2023.

Prior to this, Ukrainian armed forces reported shooting down at least 24 Shahed-136 OWA-UAVs between late January and early February 2023; and scores were destroyed in the first few days of the year.

This lack of OWA-UAV deployments likely indicates that Russia has run down its current stock. Russia will likely seek a resupply.

Although the weapons do not have a good record in destroying their intended targets, Russia likely sees them as useful decoys which can divert Ukrainian air defences from more effective Russian cruise missiles.

Ukraine conflict map as of February 25, 2023. Image: @war_mapper with permission. - ALLOW IMAGES

Map of U.S. / Canada border at Vermont. - ALLOW IMAGES

Commentary / Analysis / Research

February 25, 2023

Migrant Surge — At the Northern Border

Lost amidst the din of CBP’s apprehension numbers at the southwest border is a surge of migrants at the northern border — the 5,525-mile one the United States shares with Canada. While the number of CBP northern border encounters are low compared to the ones at the U.S.-Mexico line, they are still troubling — particularly in the Border Patrol’s Swanton (Vt.) sector.

~ READ MORE HERE (Ctr. for Immigration Studies) ~

One Year Later: Russia’s War in Ukraine

As the world marks the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, CSIS experts examine the war’s devastating impact, where the conflict stands today, and what lies ahead as combat continues into a second year.

~ READ MORE HERE (CSIS) ~

Earthquake Unveils Turkey's Many Ugly Faces

The worst disaster in modern Turkey's history, the M7.8 earthquake killed, as of February 15, more than 35,000 people and injured 100,000. The death toll will likely reach 40,000 or more. According to one estimate, the quake will result in $84 billion in economic losses to Turkey, more than 10% of gross domestic product.

It was not the quake that killed tens of thousands, but politics and suicidal profit-maximization behavior on individual level.

~ READ MORE HERE (Gatestone Institute)


Fleet and Marine Tracker Map as of February 21, 2023.  - ALLOW IMAGES
 
USNI Fleet and Marine Tracker
February 25, 2023

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of February 21, 2023 based on U.S. Navy, public data provided by the U.S. Naval Institute, and open source reporting.


A Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey prepares to land on the flight deck of the USS Makin Island in the Gulf of Thailand, Feb. 22, 2023. Image: DoD
 
World News Roundup
February 25, 2023

AMERICAS

U.S. targets Russia with sanctions, tariffs on war anniversary
UN adopts resolution calling on Russia to end hostilities and leave Ukraine
Haitian gang member detained in Dominican Republic
Not a single student can do math at grade level in 53 Illinois schools
Mexico passes electoral overhaul that critics warn weakens democracy
Chinese fighter jet confronts US Navy plane with CNN crew aboard
FL Gov. issues proposals to seriously crack down on illegals in the state
DoD purchased Chinese IT gear with known vulnerabilities for sensitive base
Man arrested for cold case murder on military base in Germany

EUROPE

Sweden's security police say Russia is 'single biggest threat' to country
Ukraine’s leader defiant on anniversary of Russian invasion
Russia says key Crimea bridge damaged in blast reopens
China cease-fire proposal for Ukraine falls flat with US, allies
UN Vote: The 7 countries that didn't support russia's withdrawal
Zalensky vows victory during somber anniversary of the Russian invasion
NATO's biggest European members float defense pact with Ukraine
How Putin’s disastrous war in Ukraine has left him facing coup
Russian support for Putin’s war in Ukraine is hardening
Russia celebrates Ukraine anniversary with threat to invade another country
Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

Oman joins Saudi in opening its airspace for Israeli carriers
Gaza rockets, Israeli strikes follow deadly West Bank raid
Turkey fines broadcasters for coverage critical of earthquake response
Israeli settlers shoot, wound 2 Palestinians in West Bank
France eyes Ivory Coast after Burkina Faso boots out French troops
IS attacks on Syria truffle hunters are deadliest in a year
Gunmen kill at least 12 civilians in central Mali village
U.S. Intelligence points to Wagner plot against key western ally in Africa
S. Africa's Eskom power company CEO quits with immediate effect
Somaliland clashes kill at least 96 in two weeks: hospital
Financial watchdog puts S. Africa, Nigeria on dirty-money gray list
Ahead of crucial election, security crises and kidnappings plague Nigeria

ASIA

North Korea says it fired cruise missiles as the U.S. and South Korea trained
Pakistan-Afghan border crossing shut after brief reopening
Khan supporters detained as Pakistan races to secure IMF deal
Pacific island leaders meet to show unity amid super power competition
Russian-led CSTO stages more counterterrorism drills on Tajik-Afghan border
Mob kills man accused of blasphemy in Pakistan's Punjab province
Remote Tajikistan region shaken by magnitude 6.8 earthquake
Indonesia tightens security in Papua after 10 killed in riot

PUBLIC HEALTH

Millions of US workers are still missing after the pandemic. Where did they go?
Cambodia confirms second human case of H5N1 avian flu
WHO says avian flu cases in humans ‘worrying’ after girl’s death in Cambodia
H5N1: Invest in vaccines for all flu strains says new WHO chief scientist
Bird flu: UK health officials make contingency plans


Peak Prosperity with Dr. Chris Martenson.

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Travel Security Resources

With tensions rapidly increasing in most regions, readers planning international travel, even to such common destinations as Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean Islands, are strongly encouraged to research the security situation at your destination prior to booking, and again prior to departure.

The U.S. Dept. of State Travel Website is the authoritative federal source for information on the security situation at travel destinations worldwide.

Active USGOV Travel Notices

Active USGOV Travel Advisories

Other USGOV Travel Resources

Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) - Registering your overseas trip with the Department of State STEP program allows you to receive information from the Embassy about safety conditions in your destination country, helping you make informed decisions about your travel plans.

Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) - Joining OSAC provides a variety of USGOV resources to enhance the safety and security of the U.S. private sector businesses and organizations operating abroad.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) - The CDC travel website is the authoritative federal source for information on current health issues related to specific destinations worldwide. These issues may arise from disease outbreaks, special events or gatherings, natural disasters, or other conditions that may affect travelers’ health.

Foreign Sources of Travel Guidance

See what other governments are telling their own citizens about the safety and security aspects of your destination.



Take Advantage of These Resources

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