On nine occasions this week AlertsUSA subscribers were notified via SMS messages to their mobile devices regarding safety and security matters.

Beginning last Sunday, AlertsUSA subscribers were informed of a security alert issued by the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, Russia, again urging US citizens in the country to depart immediately via commercial means, citing an increasing number of airlines canceling flights and countries closing their airspace to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.

The embassy alert also urged U.S. citizens to have "a contingency plan that does not rely on U.S. government assistance."

Nukes to Belarus?

Also on Sunday, AlertsUSA subscribers were also notified that voters in Belarus approved constitutional reforms that will allow the country to host nuclear weapons at a time when the former Soviet republic has become a launchpad for Russian troops invading Ukraine. Russian news agencies cited the Belarusian elections commission as saying that some 65% of citizens who took part in a referendum voted in favor of the change.

The move could bring nuclear weapons back on Belarusian soil for the first time since the country gave them up after the fall of the Soviet Union.

US Breaks Camp In Belarus

On Monday, the State Department ordered the departure of U.S. government employees and the suspension of operations of the U.S. Embassy in Belarus. All consular services, routine and emergency, are suspended until further notice. U.S. citizens in Belarus who require consular services are being urged to try to leave the country as soon and as safely possible and to contact a U.S. embassy or consulate in another country.

Turkey Blocks Warships In The Straights

Also on Monday, AlertsUSA subscribers were notified that per the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey warned both Black Sea and non-Black Sea countries to not pass warships through its Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits.

Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey has control over the naval transit through Bosporus and Dardanelles connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. The accord allows Turkey to cut off transit of military vessels through the straits during wartime, except for those that return to their bases.

Russian Aircraft Banned From US Airspace

On Tuesday, AlertsUSA subscribers were notified that Russian owned and operated aircraft would be banned from US airspace. That ban is now in effect.

As part of these restrictions, the FAA has issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) that suspends operation of all aircraft owned, certified, operated, registered, chartered, leased, or controlled by, for, or for the benefit of, a person who is a citizen of Russia. This includes passenger and cargo flights, and scheduled as well as charter flights, effectively closing U.S. air space to all Russian commercial air carriers and other Russian civil aircraft.

Thus far, at least 33 countries have blocked Russian planes from their airspace, including 27 EU nations, as well as Albania, Canada, Norway, Switzerland, the UK, and the US.

Putin retaliated this week by closing Russian airspace to aircraft from 36 countries.

Russia Shells Nuclear Power Plant

On Thursday, AlertsUSA subscribers were informed of a Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia NPP in Ukraine. Russian troops are now “in control” of the power generation facility after a battle that sparked a large but localized fire at an administrative and training complex.

According to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi, "There has been no release of radioactive material," and "there is no issue with the spent fuel."

Grossi's words appear to possibly conflict with a statement published by the plant's operator, Energoatom, which states that the Unit 1 reactor building, which was down for a routine outage, was damaged and two artillery shells hit "the area of the Dry Storage Site" for spent nuclear fuel.

U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm announced this week that the department had activated its Nuclear Incident Response Team, which is monitoring events in consultation with the Defense Department and Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

According to Secretary Granholm, “We have seen no elevated radiation readings near the facility, and the plant’s reactors are protected by robust containment structures and reactors are being safely shut down.”

Macron: The Worst Is Yet To Come

Also on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he’s convinced the "worst is yet to come" from Russian President Vladimir Putin after a tense call between the two leaders about the war in Ukraine. A senior French official said the 90-minute phone call did not yield any diplomatic progress and that Putin was determined to carry out the ongoing war in Ukraine until "the end."

Assessment

As of this report's preparation Friday evening, Russian forces continue a methodical advance on key Ukrainian cities, ports and infrastructure. See this excellent analysis video.

As AlertsUSA published two weeks ago, it remains our assessment that without ironclad, internationally recognized, long-term guarantees regarding the disposition of Ukraine (such as no NATO membership, no NATO troops, no THAAD missiles installations to take out ballistic missiles in the boost phase, etc..), Russia will move forward with the invasion that will ultimately include all of Ukraine.

At this point, the conflict has become one of tremendous strategic importance to Russia, a nation 11 time zones in size. As previously explained, the Black Sea is one of only two, year round, warm-water access points to the world's oceans in western Russia. All other ports north of the Black Sea, with the exception of Murmansk near the northeast corner of Finland, freeze over in winter. Murmansk remains ice free due to the warm waters of the North Atlantic Current crossing over the top of Norway. In St Petersburg, the waters of the back bay and inlets also freeze and require icebreakers for passage.

Russia simply cannot / will not allow essential access to the world's oceans, or the strategic naval base on Crimea, to be threatened or used as a method of control.

It is for this reason that we assess Russia will not allow Ukraine to fall into the embrace of NATO and the West. At least not without a big fight.

Here is an invasion map as of March 5 based on open source reporting. Compare this map with that of last week.

AlertsUSA continues to monitor the domestic and international threat environment around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers, via SMS messages to their mobile devices, of new alerts, warnings and advisories or any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.