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April 12, 2014
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WEEKLY THREAT ROUNDUP
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Ukraine Su-27ub Fighter - ALLOW IMAGES
Tensions Build in Eastern Europe,
More American Troops Could Be Deployed
April 12, 2014
 
Between April 8-10, 2014, AlertsUSA issued the following
Flash messages to subscriber mobile devices:

4/10
US / French warships entering Black Sea. NATO SecGen: Russia provoking unrest in E Ukraine. 40,000 Russian troops ready for combat. Monitoring...

4/8
NATO Sec Gen warns Russia against move on Ukraine, says it will be an
"historic mistake." Calls for increased readiness of multinational NATO
response force.

What You Need To Know

Tensions continue to rise with Russia's ongoing buildup of military assets on the Northern and Eastern borders of Ukraine, as well as counter moves on the part of NATO.

On Wed of this week, NATO's top military commander in Europe, U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, stated that more American troops could be deployed to Eastern Europe in an effort to shore up defenses in allied countries that share a border with Russia. "Essentially what we are looking at is a package of land, air and maritime measures that would build assurance for our easternmost allies."

Breedlove also stated that NATO would be tripling the number of fighter jets patrolling the skies over Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, three member nations without fighter jets of their own.

As reported in last week's issue of Threat Journal, Russian fighter jets have begun flying missions closer the Baltic nation's airspace, already prompting the U.S. to deploy at least 10 F-15 fighter aircraft and support personnel to Siauliai Airbase in Lithuania, 12 F-16s and surveillance aircraft to Poland, as well as additional troops and military assets to bolster air and ground forces already stationed in the region.

And it is not just the U.S.. Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Turkey are either already contributing air and land forces or are scheduled to do so in the coming days and weeks.

Late this week, the US guided-missile destroyer Donald Cook and a French intelligence warship entered the Black Sea.

Also this week, NATO Headquarters released a package of satellite images showing details of the location and type of Russian units deployed along the border with Ukraine. According to Brigadier Gary Deakin, the Director of NATO's Comprehensive Crisis Operations and Management Center (CCOMC), "The Russians have an array of capabilities including aircraft, helicopters, special forces, tanks, artillery, infantry fighting vehicles… and these could move in a matter of hours.”

Satellite Photo of Russian Forces - ALLOW IMAGES
Click Image For Full Set

Readers may recall that several weeks ago AlertsUSA Threat Journal called out the disparity in the number of Russian forces reportedly massed on the border of Ukraine. While European sources consistently report numbers between 80 and 100,000 , defense and intelligence officials within the Obama administration have been reporting numbers only around 40,000.

On Friday of this week, the Daily Beast broke a story that a major rift has formed between the Obama Administration and NATO's top military commander, 4 star U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, on this and other topics, including intelligence sharing and other forms of aid to the Ukraine military, the overall threat assessment for Eastern Europe and more.

Make no mistake, while a kinetic engagement has not yet taken place between the Russian Federation and NATO, shots are already being fired in the diplomatic, economic and cultural aspects of the battlespace.

On the diplomatic front, earlier this week the Canadian government declared Russia's military attaches persona non grata and ordered their departure from the country. The U.S. Dept. of Defense suspended all military relations with the Russia in early March.

Further, late this week Russian authorities pulled the plug on the only remaining radio transmissions of Voice of America in the Russian Federation. According to Dmitry Kiselyov, the head of the Russia's state news agency, "It’s as if they broadcast from the underworld. [...] I view these stations as spam on our airwaves."

On the economic front, this week Russian President Vladimir Putin warned European leaders that Russia would cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine if it did not pay its bills. This in turn would result in a reduction of onward deliveries to Europe. As approximately 1/3rd of Europe's natural gas comes from Russia, and approximately 80% of that is delivered via Ukrainian pipelines, the impact could be disastrous.

And if you think that this would also hurt Russia's revenue stream, think again. Earlier this week it was announced that Russia and China are preparing to enter into what is being referred to in the industry as the "Holy Grail" of gas deals. As Europe and the U.S. have sought to isolate Russia, Moscow simply looked to the East for new business, energy deals, military contracts and political alliances.

The geopolitical and economic shock waves from such a partnership will, for sure, be felt globally.

AlertsUSA continues to closely monitor the situation in eastern Europe and will immediately notify service subscribers of significant escalations or the outbreak of hostilities as events warrant.


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Other Alerts Issued This Week

4/11 USGOV issues new Worldwide Caution warning of cont'd threat of terrorist actions and violence against U.S. citizens and interests globally.

 
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N. Korea ICBM Launch - ALLOW IMAGES
Leaked DHS Report:
N. Korea Capable of EMP Attack on U.S.
April 12, 2014
 
What You Need To Know

Japan, S. Korea and the U.S. are on high alert following N. Korea’s launch of mid-range ballistic missiles last Saturday. In response, the three countries released a joint statement on Monday of this week warning N. Korea will "pay the price” if they carry out another nuclear test despite warnings from the international community.

Additionally, Japan has promised to use one of its destroyers in the Sea of Japan to shoot down any further launches that may threaten Japan. The Aegis destroyer Kirishima carrying Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) interceptors was sent to the Sea of Japan with orders to shoot down anything that ventured into Japanese territory.

Readers will recall that last week, N. Korea responded to a UN Security Council condemnation of its missile launches by warning of “a new form of nuclear test" for bolstering its nuclear deterrent. According to a report issued this week by the U.S. Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, considered the premier U.S. think tank on the region, this new form of nuclear test the N. Koreans are referring to is not a question of what kind of nuclear device is tested, but how a device is tested.

Their analysis points to three possibilities: Multiple simultaneous detonations, a full yield atmospheric nuclear test, or demonstration of a nuclear-armed missile.

As previously reported by Threat Journal on multiple occasions in the past, the fact that N. Korea has been able to successfully launch a satellite into orbit demonstrates significant technical advances for their missile program and most certainly puts the idea of a nuclear armed launch vehicle well within reach.

Which leads us to a piece of related news:

A classified report prepared by the Department of Homeland Security for the Defense Department and leaked this week warns that N. Korea is easily able to deliver on its threats to strike the U.S. with a nuclear electromagnetic pulse attack. A copy of the highly sensitive report obtained by Peter Vincent Pry, executive director of the congressional advisory Task Force on National and Homeland Security, finds that N. Korea could use its Unha-3 space launch vehicle to deliver a nuclear warhead as a satellite over the South Pole to attack the U.S. from the South.

At present, the U.S. has no early warning radars or interceptors to stop a missile from the South. DHS conducted the study after the N. Korean nuclear crisis last Spring during which N. Korea's leadership threatened a “preemptive” nuclear strike on the U.S. and then released videos depicting a nuclear attack on Washington.

According to Pry, “The N. Koreans are seeing what they can get away with. It shows that Pyongyang is planning something big against the U.S.”

In the classified study, the Department of Homeland Security recommended that if N. Korea attempted to deploy either the Unha-3 space launch vehicle or the Taepodong-2 intercontinental ballistic missile, the Pentagon should destroy the missile on its pad before launch.

As always, AlertsUSA continues to closely monitor the situation on the Korean Peninsula and will immediately notify service subscribers of changes in the overall threat environment, pending nuclear tests or missile launches, as events warrant.


Travel Security Update

The U.S. Dept. of State is the authoritative federal source for information on the security situation at travel destinations worldwide. With tensions rapidly increasing in most regions, readers planning on international travel, even to such common destinations as Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean Islands, are strongly encouraged to do a little research on the security situation prior to departure.

Important USGOV Travel Alerts and Warnings

04/10/2014
03/14/2014
03/07/2014
 
See all USGOV Travel Alerts and Warnings HERE.

Take Advantage of These Resources

Our social media channels provide a steady steam of important news and resources between issues of Threat Journal with little or no overlap of content. Combined with the AlertsUSA service for instant mobile notification of the really bad developments, you have an unmatched set of tools to keep yourself fully up to speed on the nation's threat environment. With times getting worse by the day, we urge you to utilize these resources.

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Ezekiel 33:2-6

"But if the watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the trumpet to warn the people and the sword comes and takes someone’s life, that person’s life will be taken because of their sin, but I will hold the watchman accountable for their blood."