On Wednesday morning, Finland and Sweden simultaneously submitted their official letters of application to join NATO. The letters were conveyed by the Finnish and Swedish ambassadors to NATO directly to Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of the alliance, during a ceremony in Brussels.
Among Stoltenberg's remarks:
"Every nation has the right to choose its own path. You have both made your choice, after thorough democratic processes. And I warmly welcome the requests by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. You are our closest partners. And your membership in NATO would increase our shared security."
In a speech on Friday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the move by Finland and Sweden to join NATO was among several military threats that have increased in recent years along Russia’s northwestern border, including an increased tempo of US strategic bomber flights, US warships to the Baltic Sea, and intensified training exercises in the region with its NATO partners. As a result, Shoigu announced that "12 military bases and units will be deployed in the Western Military District." He said the bases will be completed by year's end.
Turkey Maneuvering
Readers are reminded that all of NATO’s 30 member countries must agree to accept new members. Thus far, Turkish President Recep Erdogan has expressed opposition to Finland and Sweden joining due their support for Kurdish groups whom Turkey considers terrorists.
According to NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg, “I’m confident that we will be able to address the concerns that Turkey has expressed in a way that doesn’t delay the membership or the accession process.”
Turkey's President is not an idiot. He is a shrewd politician who sees NATO in a rush, and they need his vote on a high stakes matter. This gives him the strong position from which to negotiate certain concessions on behalf of his nation and their interests. The odds are good that after a few weeks of back and forth, feigned indignance, walk outs, and refusals to meet, one key concession or another will be made, then suddenly the NATO bid will secured, and the diplomats will throw a party to celebrate.
Readers are also reminded that last week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed separate mutual security agreements with both Sweden and Finland completely unrelated to NATO treaties. Sweden and Finland have also received assurances of military support from other nations should Russia choose to attack during the application process.
A Russian 180?
Readers are reminded that in February, Russia's Foreign Ministry warned of "serious military-political repercussions" should Finland and Sweden join NATO.
Then in April, Russia warned of nuclear weapons deployment if Sweden and Finland joined the alliance, saying it would be forced to bolster its defenses in the region.
Just last week, Russia's Foreign Ministry warned that Moscow "will be forced to take retaliatory steps of military-technical and other characteristics in order to counter the emerging threats to its national security."
But this week, in a hard reversal, Putin says Sweden and Finland joining NATO is fine after all. On Monday at a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Putin stated the following:
"As for the expansion of NATO, including through new members of the alliance which are Finland, Sweden — Russia has no problems with these states —none. And so in this sense, there is no immediate threat to Russia from an expansion to include these countries."
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