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June 18, 2022
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NATO To Boost Forces & Equipment On Eastern Flank

June 18, 2022
What You Need To Know

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led allies to rethink strategies and to agree that NATO forces should be present in greater numbers on that eastern flank. NATO says it has placed over 40,000 troops under its direct command, mainly in the east, and is looking at how it can further strengthen its presence, readiness, and capabilities.

On Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg addressed the scale and design of NATO’s future posture:

“This will mean more NATO forward deployed combat formations, to strengthen our battlegroups in the eastern part of our Alliance. More air, sea and cyber defenses, as well as prepositioned equipment and weapon stockpiles. And a new force model, with more forces at higher readiness, and specific forces preassigned to the defense of specific Allies, to enable much faster reinforcement.”

Stoltenberg's comments came following a meeting of defense ministers at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. This week's meeting was in preparation for a NATO leaders summit later this month in Madrid.

While allies agree that there should be a greater NATO presence in eastern flank countries such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, there have been internal debates on how to best position forces in the region. While some eastern allies have called for the permanent presence of NATO troops in their countries, others have preferred a more rotational, flexible approach.

Stoltenberg said leaders in Madrid are also expected to green-light a new assistance package for Ukraine, which has been clamoring for more advanced weapons and equipment from NATO allies.

China Launches New Carrier

Late this week, China launched its third and most advanced aircraft carrier, bringing it a step closer to its goal of building a blue-water navy with at least six aircraft carrier battle groups by 2035.

Click to Enlarge. The Aircraft Carrier Fujian, also known as the Type-003, was launched in Shanghai, China, on June 17 2022. The aircraft carrier is comparable in size to the U.S. Navy's Nimitz and Ford classes. - ALLOW IMAGES

The vessel, named Fujian after the coastal province opposite Taiwan, had been under construction at Shanghai’s Jiangnan shipyard since 2018 and is comparable in size to a U.S. Ford or Nimitz class carrier.

The Fujian will reduce the gap of China’s carrier fleet compared with the US and is expected to enter service late next year or in 2024.

Pro-Abortion Fanatics Spinning Up

A new intelligence note sent to law enforcement agencies nationwide this week warns that in anticipation of the upcoming release of the Supreme Court ruling on abortion rights, Jane’s Revenge, an abortion-related violent extremist (ARVE) collective, posted a public statement on social media this week threatening pro-life groups who refuse to close their doors, declaring “open season” and advising they know where there operations are located.

“From here forward, any anti-choice group who closes their doors, and stops operating will no longer be a target. But until you do, it’s open season, and we know where your operations are. Through attacking, we find joy, courage, and strip the veneer of impenetrability held by these violent institutions.”

The letter goes on to describe how "easy and fun it is to attack," vowed to take "increasingly drastic measures against oppressive infrastructures," and that their upcoming actions "may not come in the form of something so easily cleaned up as fire and graffiti.”

Readers are reminded that just last week, the Dept. of Homeland Security issued a Nat'l Terrorism Advisory System bulletin warning that the "threat environment" in coming months is expected to become more dynamic as "several high-profile events could be exploited to justify acts of violence against a range of possible targets. Those targets include public gatherings, faith-based institutions, schools, racial, ethnic, and religious minorities, government facilities and personnel, U.S. critical infrastructure, the media, and perceived ideological opponents.

The Supreme Court term usually concludes the last week of June or first week of July, so the formal ruling is expected to be released before then.

Border Patrol Nabs 15 on Terror Watch List

A new report this week reveals that in May alone, Border Patrol agents ​apprehended 15 illegal aliens listed on the FBI’s terror watch list trying to sneak across the US-Mexico border. And those were just the ones caught. The special interest aliens and possible terrorists were among a staggering 239,416 illegals encountered at the southern border last month.

According to Customs and Border Protection, this is the highest monthly number of Border Patrol encounters with illegal aliens in the history of their record keeping, and brings the total migrant encounters in FY 2022 to more than 1.5 million. Approximately half of these encounters were processed for immediate removal under Title 42, which grants the government the ability to take emergency action to stop the “introduction of communicable diseases” into the country.

Readers are reminded that just one month ago, a federal judge in Louisiana blocked Joe Biden from lifting Title 42, saying the administration violated administrative procedure laws and that lifting of the health order would cause “irreparable harm” because the states would have to spend money on health care, law enforcement, education and other services for the flood of illegals certain to cross the border.

AlertsUSA continues to monitor the domestic and international threat environment around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers, via SMS messages to their mobile devices, of new alerts, warnings and advisories or any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.


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SMS ALERTS FROM THIS WEEK
NOT DETAILED IN THIS NEWSLETTER ISSUE

6/14 - Active shooter alert, Joint Base San Antonio - Lackland AFB. Base locked down. Additional alerts as warranted.

6/16 - AlertsUSA monitoring response to mass shooting, St. Stephen's Episcopal Church, Vestavia Hills, AL. At least 3 victims, injuries unknown. Suspect in custody.

 
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Click to Enlarge - France will supply Ukraine with 6 additional 155mm Caesar artillery mounts.  - ALLOW IMAGES

Ukraine War Update

As of June 17, 2022
What You Need To Know

According to the UK Ministry of Defense:

Over the last 24 hours, Russian forces have likely continued to attempt to regain momentum on the Popasna axis, from which they seek to surround the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the south.

In Russia, the war has accelerated the state’s long-term trajectory towards authoritarianism. In recent weeks, the Duma has started the process to introduce a 20-year sentence for Russians who fight against the Russian Federation.

Speaking out against the invasion is also being criminalised. Despite the majority of Russians telling pollsters they support the ‘special military operation’, elements of the population both actively and passively demonstrate their opposition.

The “Freedom for Russia Legion”, recruited from Russians, has almost certainly deployed in combat alongside the Ukrainian military. Some high profile Russian officials have highly likely been side-lined after criticising the war.

Scepticism about the war is likely also particularly strong amongst Russia’s business elite and oligarch community. Migration applications suggest that 15,000 Russian millionaires (in US dollars) are likely already attempting to leave the country.

Motivations highly likely include both personal opposition to the invasion and an intent to escape the financial impact of the sanctions imposed on Russia. Should this exodus continue, it will likely exacerbate the war’s long-term damage to Russia’s economy.

Click to Enlarge - Conflict map for June 18, 2022. - ALLOW IMAGES

Taiwan - A mission critical semiconductor supplier.  - ALLOW IMAGES

Commentary / Analysis / Research

June 18, 2022

A Taiwan Invasion Could Unleash Economic Disaster

If China goes ahead with an invasion of Taiwan, regardless of whether China officially considers it an invasion, it could have a substantial impact on global trade.

Speaking to Reuters on Tuesday, Taiwan’s top trade negotiator John Deng warned that the move would have a bigger impact on global trade than the Russian invasion of Ukraine for one simple reason: microchips.

~ READ MORE HERE (1945) ~

China's New Way of War

Since 2019, China has been pursuing a new concept of war, known as "intelligentized warfare." The idea is to operationalize artificial intelligence (AI) and the use of unmanned platforms (such as drones) in a way that subdues the enemy, ultimately without having to resort to conventional "hot" warfare.

~ READ MORE HERE (Gatestone Institute ) ~

The Place Of Nuclear Weapons In Modern War

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, old questions about nuclear deterrence have been revisited by a broad swath of academics, scholars, and pundits who have spent the past three decades acclimated to a climate of dramatically reduced nuclear risk. For those of us working in what has been a niche subfield, the attention has been both validating and, at times, surprising.

What is not often said is that nuclear deterrence is working and, as a result, both the United States and Russia face constraints in how they approach conflict that involves the other. Nuclear deterrence has limited the escalation of the conflict in profound ways, despite brutal fighting, heavy casualties, and the supply of substantial amounts of Western weaponry to Ukraine. This is welcome news, but there is a caution: There is no guarantee that it will continue to do so, nor can there be.

~ READ MORE HERE (War On The Rocks) ~

Vehicle Ramming Self-Assessment Tool

DHS/CISA, in collaboration with the Chicago Police Department, developed the Vehicle Ramming Self-Assessment Tool to assist the law enforcement community and critical infrastructure stakeholders with evaluating public gathering areas against the risk of a vehicle-ramming style of attack. Leveraged as part of a comprehensive security strategy, the tool can be used to evaluate singular or multiple areas of interest, prioritize them by vulnerability to attack, and identify mitigation options for consideration.

The tool allows each stakeholder to develop a risk mitigation strategy based on their identified vulnerabilities and options for consideration. Following the completion of the self-assessment, a stakeholder can export a customized report in a variety of configurations to make it available for organizational use.

~ READ MORE HERE (DHS/CISA) ~


Fleet and Marine Tracker Map as of June 13, 2022.  - ALLOW IMAGES
 
USNI Fleet and Marine Tracker
June 18, 2022

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of June 13, 2022 based on U.S. Navy, public data provided by the U.S. Naval Institute, and open source reporting. In cases where a CSG or ARG is conducting disaggregated operations, the chart reflects the location of the capital ship.


Click to Enlarge - Army Sgt. Justin Covert mans an M1A2 .50-caliber machine gun on a Stryker vehicle during training at Fort Irwin, Calif., as the Milky Way galactic center is visible overhead, May 24, 2022. - ALLOW IMAGES
 
World News Roundup
June 18, 2022

AMERICAS

As Russia presses assault, Ukraine given possible path to EU
Drone swarms that harassed navy ships off CA demystified
Navy releases videos from mysterious drone swarms around warships off CA
Biden told Austin, Blinken to tone down remarks supporting Ukraine
UN: Record numbers displaced by war, persecution
Senators tack $45B onto Biden's defense budget
B-21 bomber delivers Pentagon surprise: It’s under budget so far
The deteriorating nuclear order
US to launch Pacific island initiative

EUROPE

Three American fighters reported missing in Ukraine
UK govt orders Julian Assange’s extradition; appeal planned
Dutch PM says NATO using Ukraine as proxy against Russia
Medvedev says Ukraine might not 'exist on the world map' in 2 years
Ukraine officially responds to Medvedev: Ukraine was, is and will be
Patrushev says Russia wants to reach agreement with Ukraine ASAP
Russian official claims Moscow is looking to end the war
Russia’s EW capabilities have had mixed results against Ukraine
Ukraine: We’ll destroy bridge linking Russia to Crimea
Ukraine vows to reclaim Crimea with US weapons
Cockpit footage of NATO jet encounter with Russian reconnaissance plane
European natgas soars 70% in week amid delays and Russian cuts
Egypt, Israel to boost gas supply to EU amid Ukraine war
Ukraine vows to reclaim Crimea with US weapons
Inside the room where Ukraine orders arms from the West
What is EUCOM’s Ukraine control center?

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

M23 rebels seize key DRC town, Congolese military blames Rwanda
Nighttime U.S. helicopter raid captures ‘senior Daesh leader’
US reviews Israeli air strikes against Iranian targets in Syria, says report
Biden insists he is NOT meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
As Israeli coalition falters, former IDF chief mulls politics
Getting the balance right in US–Saudi relations
Fears grow over Iran's nuclear program as Tehran digs a new tunnel network
Congolese soldier killed in Rwanda, fighting with rebels picks up
Media arrests 'reverberate' across Ethiopian newsrooms
Sudan protester shot dead as protests flare following military-civilian meeting
Turkish drone strike in north Iraq said to kill 4 militants

ASIA

DPRK expands work at nuclear test site to second tunnel
There’s a run on Chinese banks and it’s being ignored by the world
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan: Too costly to countenance?
China launches third, most advanced aircraft carrier named ‘Fujian’
Chinese banks freeze billions in deposits
Angry protests hit India over new short-term military jobs
China defends ‘zero-COVID’ after US envoy warns of costs
Chinese military jets over Taiwan's air defense zone
Taiwan official warns supersonic cruise missile can strike Beijing
China says trade with Russia expected to hit new records
Xi Jinping could knowingly start a war without victory
Patriot down drone target from Palau with assist from Lightning II
Disputing Chinese sea control through offensive sea mining
New AUKUS caucus bill calls for U.S.-Australia sub training pipeline
American carrier strike groups in Philippine sea ahead of RIMPAC 2022
China’s ‘particle beam cannon’


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Hurricane Preparedness Resources

These resources provide actionable guidance to government officials and the general public on how to prepare for and respond to extreme tropical weather events. The links below jump directly to the resource page of each organization.

Ready.Gov
DHS / FEMA
Dept. of Defense
Centers for Disease Control (CDC)
Nat'l Oceanic and Atmos. Admin (NOAA)
Dept of Labor / OSHA
Red Cross

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Travel Security Resources

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The U.S. Dept. of State Travel Website is the authoritative federal source for information on the security situation at travel destinations worldwide. With tensions rapidly increasing in most regions, readers planning international travel, even to such common destinations as Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean Islands, are strongly encouraged to research on the security situation at your destination prior to departure.

Active USGOV Travel Notices
Worldwide Caution


Active USGOV Travel Advisories
Alphabetical Country List
Dynamic Map



Other USGOV Travel Resources
Traveler's Checklist
Smart Traveler Enrollment Prog (STEP)
Travelers with Special Considerations
Travel to High-Risk Areas
Faith-Based Travel Information
Information for Women Travelers
Cruise Ship Passengers
Students Abroad
Your Health Abroad
Driving and Road Safety Abroad

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The Department of State’s Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) provides a variety of resources to enhance the safety and security of the U.S. private sector businesses and organizations operating abroad.

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The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website is the authoritative federal source for information on current health issues related to specific destinations worldwide. These issues may arise from disease outbreaks, special events or gatherings, natural disasters, or other conditions that may affect travelers’ health.

Foreign Sources of Travel Guidance

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Take Advantage of These Resources

Our social media channels provide a steady steam of important news and resources between issues of Threat Journal with little or no overlap of content. Combined with the AlertsUSA service for instant mobile notification of the really bad developments, you have an unmatched set of tools to keep yourself fully up to speed on the nation's threat environment. With times getting worse by the day, we urge you to utilize these resources.


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