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July 16, 2022
Threat Journal is a weekly supplement to the
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WEEKLY THREAT AND ALERT ROUNDUP
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Click to Enlarge - Deadly Kalibr cruise missiles are being launched from Russia’s quiet and improved Kilo-class submarines against military and civilian targets across Ukraine. - ALLOW IMAGES

U.S. Embassy Warns of Russian Missile Threat
Large Gatherings May Be Targeted

July 16, 2022
On July 14 the following related Flash SMS
message was sent to AlertsUSA subscriber mobile devices:
7/14 - US Embassy Ukraine issues missile threat awareness alert urging US citizens in country to depart immediately. Large gatherings may be targeted. More via email.
 
What You Need To Know

On Thursday, AlertsUSA subscribers were notified of a new missile threat awareness alert issued by the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine urging US citizens in country to depart immediately. The alert cites the threat of Russian missile attacks and was posted on the embassy’s website on July 14, the same day Russia stepped up its rocket and missile assaults on civilian targets throughout Ukraine.

In the most lethal of these attacks, Russian forces launched missiles from a submarine in the Black Sea that impacted a business center in the city of Vinnytsia located southwest of Kyiv that killed 22 and injured more than 100. Just days prior, a Russian missile attack on an apartment building in the Donestk region killed 48.

According to the alert:

The security situation throughout Ukraine continues to be violent and unpredictable due to ongoing military attacks by Russia, with active fighting in country and uncertain safety conditions. The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens not to enter Ukraine and those in Ukraine to depart immediately using privately available ground transportation options if it is safe to do so. Avoid large gatherings and organized events as they may serve as Russian military targets anywhere in Ukraine, including its western regions.

U.S. citizens should remain vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness.

The Russian Foreign Ministry responded to the alert by saying that "the US Embassy in Ukraine forgot to add that Washington is transferring American weapons to the Kiev regime, the use of which provokes the prolongation of the conflict and the death of people.”

Readers are reminded that one week ago, the Pentagon announced another arms shipment to Ukraine that is valued at around $400 million, bringing the total military assistance rolled out since February to over $7 billion.

The latest shipment includes artillery ammunition with greater precision, as well as four additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems or HIMARS, which have allowed Ukraine to strike Russian ammunition dumps, military stockpiles, and command targets deeper inside occupied territory.

AlertsUSA continues to monitor the domestic and international threat environment around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers, via SMS messages to their mobile devices, of new alerts, warnings and advisories or any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.


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SMS ALERTS FROM THIS WEEK
NOT DETAILED IN THIS NEWSLETTER ISSUE

7/16 - Int'l terminal of San Francisco International Airport evacuated due to bomb threat. Suspicious package located, suspect detained. Add'l alerts as warranted...

 
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An M28 Reduced Range Practice Rocket (RRPR) is launched from a HIMARS. Photo Credit: LCPL Seth Maggard, USMC, Wikipedia Commons - ALLOW IMAGES

Ukraine War Update+

As of June 24, 2022
What You Need To Know

British intelligence assesses that in the Donbas, Russian and pro-Russian Luhansk People's Republic separatist forces claim to have entered the outskirts of Siversk. This has not been corroborated, however, Russian forces have been slowly advancing westwards following shelling and probing assaults towards Siversk from Lysychansk to open a pathway onward to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Bakhmut is likely to be the next objective, once Siversk is secured.

Since withdrawing from the strategically located Snake Island on 30 June 2022, Russia has been attempting to deny its use by Ukraine. However, on 13 July 2022 airstrikes by two Su-27 Russian fighter jets failed to hit the island. This follows the pattern of Russian air forces failing to successfully engage in the tactical battle.

Over 2.5m people have now been evacuated from Ukraine to Russia since the start of the invasion. Russia continues to face accusations that it is forcibly deporting Ukrainians; in many cases Ukrainians have reportedly been mistreated in filtration camps set up by Russia.

Click to Enlarge - Conflict map for July 16, 2022. - ALLOW IMAGES

Click to Enlarge - NATO and Russian flags. - ALLOW IMAGES

Commentary / Analysis / Research

July 16, 2022

The Real Military Balance Between Russia and NATO

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the atrocities that have accompanied it, have naturally caused deep anxiety throughout Europe. NATO’s new Strategic Concept for the next decade calls Russia “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”

But before devoting huge additional resources to confront Russia, it would be a good idea to take a level-headed look at Russian military resources and the nature and extent of the Russian military threat to NATO.

~ READ MORE HERE (Responsible Statecraft) ~

Could the War in Ukraine Last Years?

With the Ukraine war entering its fifth month, the fighting has entered into a slow-moving slog. Tragically, there is no end in sight. Ukraine still hopes to recapture the 20 percent of its territory held by Russia, including those parts that Moscow stole in 2014. While understandable, this position is militarily unpromising, and likely a recipe for many months or years of combat.

~ READ MORE HERE (National Interest) ~

Why Arabs Are Fed up With the Palestinians

The Palestinians are disappointed: their Arab brothers have stopped providing them with financial aid. The truth is that most of the Arab countries long ago turned their backs on the Palestinians. They can only blame themselves for ruining their relations with the rest of the Arab world.

It is ironic that while the European Union recently announced its decision to resume unconditional financial aid to the Palestinians, the Arab countries continue to completely ignore the Palestinians. It is also ironic that while the Biden administration continues to talk about providing financial aid to the Palestinians, the Arab countries do not seem to care at all about their Palestinian brothers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

~ READ MORE HERE (Gatestone Institute) ~


Fleet and Marine Tracker Map as of July 11, 2022.  - ALLOW IMAGES
 
USNI Fleet and Marine Tracker
July 16, 2022

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of July 11, 2022 based on U.S. Navy, public data provided by the U.S. Naval Institute, and open source reporting. In cases where a CSG or ARG is conducting disaggregated operations, the chart reflects the location of the capital ship.


Army Col. Shane Finison flies an AH-64E Apache helicopter near Mount Rainier, Wash., July 11, 2022, during his final flight as commander of the 16th Combat Aviation Brigade.- ALLOW IMAGES
 
World News Roundup
July 16, 2022

AMERICAS

With few able and fewer willing, U.S. military can’t find recruits
'Impossibly Stupid': US Farmland near military base just sold to Chinese firm
Ex-CIA engineer convicted of biggest theft of secret info in agency history
New B61-12 bomb’s precision unusable by some nuclear strike jets
Army cuts pay, benefits from 57,000 unvaccinated National Guard, Reserves
Hundreds of thousands of US troops may face dismissal
Judge blocks USAF from kicking out, punishing thousands of unvaxed troops
Thousands trapped as gangs battle for control in Port-au-Prince
Week of gang battles kills dozens, deepens fuel crisis in Haiti

EUROPE

NATO and EU sound alarm over risk of Ukraine weapons smuggling
It looks NATO anti-tank weapons reached the Balkans via the black market
Could SWITZERLAND end long-term neutrality and join NATO?
EU set to boost Ukraine weapons financing to 2.5 billion euros
European demand for weapons grows as Russia fallout deepens
Lithuania to keep Kaliningrad trade restrictions while working out new rules
Deal in sight to end Ukrainian grain blockade - Turkey
Russia says EU ban on goods transit to Kaliningrad 'not resolved'
Russian lawmakers hold snap summer session as war, economic issues loom
Putin ally confirms Russia's ‘world war’ with western world
Ukraine severs diplomatic ties with N. Korea
German soldier found guilty of planning terror attacks posing as a refugee
EU executive proposes import ban on Russian gold, tweaks on food trade
Germany: Consumers can expect heating bills to 'at least triple'
Europe could face energy rationing as ‘really tough winter’ looms

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

Islamic State plotted chemical attacks in Western Europe
U.S., Israel sign joint pledge to deny Iran nuclear weaponry
Iran announces Indian Ocean drone division during Biden's Middle East visit
Iraqi cleric shows power as thousands attend mass prayer
Mali suspends rotation flights of UN peacekeepers
Bandits kidnap 3, kill one in Bauchi, Nigeria
Togo's army says civilians killed by airstrike, mistaken for jihadists
U.S. not expecting Saudi Arabia to immediately boost oil production
Kenya election: TikTok and disinformation

ASIA

There’s a run on Chinese banks and it’s being ignored by the world
China tries to stem growing anger over frozen bank deposits
Gates-funded lab, 2 miles from Wuhan institute, reports cholera case
China moves to control iron-ore imports with new state company
Australia gov't faces pressure to reinstate COVID quarantine pay
Sri Lanka PM tells military to do whatever necessary to restore order
Sri Lanka declares curfew in capital of Colombo
Sri Lankan president sends resignation letter after fleeing to Singapore
S. Korea's Navy creates aviation unit for bolstering maritime security


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Hurricane Preparedness Resources

These resources provide actionable guidance to government officials and the general public on how to prepare for and respond to extreme tropical weather events. The links below jump directly to the resource page of each organization.

Ready.Gov
DHS / FEMA
Dept. of Defense
Centers for Disease Control (CDC)
Nat'l Oceanic and Atmos. Admin (NOAA)
Dept of Labor / OSHA
Red Cross

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Travel Security Resources

Department of State Seal - ALLOW IMAGES

The U.S. Dept. of State Travel Website is the authoritative federal source for information on the security situation at travel destinations worldwide. With tensions rapidly increasing in most regions, readers planning international travel, even to such common destinations as Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean Islands, are strongly encouraged to research on the security situation at your destination prior to departure.

Active USGOV Travel Notices
Worldwide Caution


Active USGOV Travel Advisories
Alphabetical Country List
Dynamic Map



Other USGOV Travel Resources
Traveler's Checklist
Smart Traveler Enrollment Prog (STEP)
Travelers with Special Considerations
Travel to High-Risk Areas
Faith-Based Travel Information
Information for Women Travelers
Cruise Ship Passengers
Students Abroad
Your Health Abroad
Driving and Road Safety Abroad

Overseas Security Advisory Council Logo - ALLOW IMAGES

The Department of State’s Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) provides a variety of resources to enhance the safety and security of the U.S. private sector businesses and organizations operating abroad.

CDC Logo - ALLOW IMAGES

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website is the authoritative federal source for information on current health issues related to specific destinations worldwide. These issues may arise from disease outbreaks, special events or gatherings, natural disasters, or other conditions that may affect travelers’ health.

Foreign Sources of Travel Guidance

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Take Advantage of These Resources

Our social media channels provide a steady steam of important news and resources between issues of Threat Journal with little or no overlap of content. Combined with the AlertsUSA service for instant mobile notification of the really bad developments, you have an unmatched set of tools to keep yourself fully up to speed on the nation's threat environment. With times getting worse by the day, we urge you to utilize these resources.


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