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July 31, 2021
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WEEKLY THREAT AND ALERT ROUNDUP
Published Each Saturday Afternoon
 
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Delta Variant Dashing Summer Holiday Plans

July 31, 2021
Between July 26-30, the following related Flash SMS
messages were sent to AlertsUSA subscriber mobile devices:

7/26 - CDC & State Dept. issue LEVEL 4 travel advisories for Spain urging Americans to avoid all travel to the country due to high levels of COVID-19. More via email.

7/27 - POTUS to announce a requirement that all federal employees & contractors be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, or submit to regular testing & mitigation protocols.

7/30 - Due to rise in COVID19 cases in the Nat'l Capital Region, the Pentagon Reservation will move to Health Protection Condition Bravo @ 5AM on 8/2. More via email.

What You Need To Know

AlertsUSA subscribers were notified on Tuesday that the CDC and State Dept had issued parallel LEVEL 4 - DO NOT TRAVEL advisories for Spain urging Americans to avoid all travel to the country due to high levels of COVID-19. Spain has experienced a sharp rise in coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths in the past four weeks which have prompted authorities to impose fresh restrictions in many parts of the country. In turn, these new restrictions have triggered demonstrations and civil unrest.

Similar to the alert issued last week for the United Kingdom, the State Department's advisory for Spain also points out that terrorist groups continue plotting possible attacks in the country. The advisory warns that terrorists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations and all manner of public, private and government facilities.

WHY TARGET SPAIN?

Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have been responsible for multiple significant attacks in Spain. These include the March 2004 Madrid Train Bombings which killed 192 and injured more than 2000, as well as the 2017 Barcelona and Cambrils vehicle ramming attacks that killed 14 and injured more than 130.

Much of the stated motivation of the jihadists in targeting Spain stems from the fact that Moors from N. Africa invaded and ruled over the Iberian Peninsula and what is now Spain and Portugal for more than 700 years. This ended in 1492 when the military efforts of multiple Christian states over hundreds of years resulted in the fall of the last Muslim state of Iberia, known as Granada.

With the recapture of Grenada, Muslims were required to convert to Christianity or leave the combined kingdoms of Spain. Between 1492 and 1610, some 3,000,000 Muslims voluntarily left or were expelled, resettling in North Africa.

This "Reconquista" and expulsion continues to be a thorn, with multiple extremist groups having since threatened to recapture the area, and in particular, a region of southern Spain refereed to as Al-Andalus, for inclusion in the caliphate.

On Friday of this week, AlertsUSA subscribers were notified that due to increasing COVID19 case numbers in the Nat'l Capital Region, the Department of Defense had ordered an increase in the Health Protection Condition of the entirety of the Pentagon Reservation. The move to HPCON Bravo acknowledges an area is experiencing increased community transmission of the virus and triggers masking and social distancing protocols, testing requirements, limitations on travel, limits to the size of gatherings, and more.

Approximately 27,000 military, civilian employees, and non-defense support personnel work inside the Pentagon each day.

President Biden announced on Thursday that on-site federal contractors, as well as all federal employees, must attest to their coronavirus vaccination status or be subject to restrictions, including the wearing of a mask, regardless of their location; social distancing from others with at work; weekly or twice weekly coronavirus testing, limited official travel, and more.

President Biden has also ordered the Defense Department to develop a plan to make vaccines for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) mandatory for all members of the U.S. military. At present, COVID-19 vaccinations are voluntary for service members because the vaccines have not yet received full approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

THREE EYEOPENING REPORTS

Three reports were published this week that readers may find interesting.

The first is an analysis conducted by the Bloomberg. Sometime around the end of April, the Centers for Disease Control stopped comprehensively tracking what are known as "vaccine breakthrough cases." This is where a fully vaccinated person tests positive for COVID-19. At the time, the agency had identified only 10,262 cases across the U.S. with tens of millions of vaccine doses already administered.

The CDC said that it would continue to collect data on breakthrough cases only if the infections resulted in hospitalization or death, leaving a massive gap in the data needed to track the effectiveness of the vaccines. But just about the time the CDC stopped tracking non-hospitalized breakthrough cases, case numbers for the new Delta variant of the virus were on the rise.

While the CDC may have inexplicably stopped collecting the surveillance data, dozens of individual states did not. Bloomberg gathered data from 35 states and identified a surprising 111,748 vaccine breakthrough cases through the end of July, more than 10X the CDC’s end-of-April tally.

Not only is the Delta variant more contagious, the Bloomberg report states health officials believe it more readily causes symptomatic — and contagious — illness in vaccinated people.

Next is this week's Morbidity and Mortality Report from the CDC which contains a new paper looking at hundreds of cases of COVID-19 following a series of public events in Barnstable County, Massachusetts. Testing identified the Delta variant in 90% of individuals participating. Interestingly, the viral loads of the vaccinated and unvaccinated participants were similar.

These items raise serious questions about the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing infection or transmission of the Delta variant.

The third report comes from SAGE, which is the UK government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. As the title explains, SAGE provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision makers during emergencies.

This week, SAGE published a document titled "The Long Term Evolution of SARS-CoV-2" which looks at potential scenarios that could emerge in the not-so-distant future. Of those scenarios, a new COVID variant that could kill up to one in three people is a "realistic possibility."

According to the SAGE report, a process — known as recombination — could lead to a strain with 'increased morbidity and mortality'. For instance, a vaccine-resistant variant combining with the more transmissible 'Kent' Alpha or 'India' Delta variants.

AlertsUSA continues to monitor the domestic and international threat environment around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers, via SMS messages to their mobile devices, of new alerts, warnings and advisories or any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.


AlertsUSA.com

SMS ALERTS FROM THIS WEEK
NOT DETAILED IN THIS NEWSLETTER ISSUE

7/29 - M8.1 earthquake, 106 km SE of Perryville, AK. TSUNAMI WARNING - S. Alaska, Hinchinbrook Ent to Unimak Pass., Aleutian Islands, Unimak Pass to Samalga Pass.

7/29 - Tsunami Advisory: SE Alaska, S. Alaska & Alaska Peninsula, Aleutian Islands. For other US and Canadian Pacific coasts, level of tsunami danger being evaluated.

7/29 - TSUNAMI WARNING remains in effect for S. Alaska, Alaskan Peninsula and Aleutian Islands. Tsunami threat for other US / Canadian Pacific coasts being evaluated.

 
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Color-enhanced scanning electron micrograph of a cell infected with SARS-CoV-2 particles, isolated from a patient sample. SARS-CoV-2 virus particles are the small, roughly-spherical structures, found on the surface of the cell, which is exhibiting elongated, rod-shaped cell projections. Image captured at the NIAID Research Facility (IRF) in fort Detrick, Maryland. Credit: NIAID - ALLOW IMAGES

Coronavirus Update

July 31, 2021
What You Need To Know

According to data provided by the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, as of Friday evening there have been more than 613,000 total deaths in the U.S. attributed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

According to data provided by the HHS / CDC / ASPR Community Profile Report, total new deaths in the U.S. over the last 7 days were up to 2,072, which is a 33% increase over the previous 7 day period. Total confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions in the U.S. over the last 7 days was 38,326, which is an increase of 46% over the previous 7 day period.

The CDC still requires all air passengers entering the United States (including U.S. citizens and Legal Permanent Residents) to present a negative COVID-19 test, taken within three calendar days of departure​, or proof of recovery from the virus within the last 90 days.

The CDC still requires the wearing of face masks while on conveyances and at transportation hubs.

The Department of Homeland Security has extended the restrictions on non-essential cross-border LAND travel with Canada and Mexico through Aug 21.

CANADA

Active case numbers are on the rise again in Alberta and British Columbia.

LATIN AMERICA

Brazil is back to leading the world in average daily new COVID infections, as well as regional leader in daily deaths, followed by Mexico, Columbia, Argentina, and Ecuador.

EUROPE

While many many EU nations have reopened for business and are accepting travelers from the U.S., the continent is a patchwork of different rules and regulations, as well as widely differing COVID standings.

This week, the UK, Spain, Russia, France and Italy are reporting the most new infections each day. Russia, is reporting the most daily deaths, followed by the UK and Spain.

Nationwide COVID-19 Metrics - ALLOW IMAGES

Important COVID-19 Headlines

Nanjing: New virus outbreak worst since Wuhan, say Chinese state media
China on 'high alert' as delta variant of Covid-19 spreads to 5 provinces
World races to contain Delta variant, US steps up anti-virus plan
CDC warns Delta variant appears to spread as easily as chickenpox
CDC Scaled Back Hunt for Breakthrough Cases Just as the Delta Grew
Officials in Tokyo alarmed as virus cases hit record highs
Biden pushing federal workers — hard — to get vaccinated
Unvaccinated Federal Workers to Face Testing, Masking
DC will require masks indoors for everyone older than 2 beginning July 31
DoD says it will start talks on making COVID-19 vaccine mandatory
Aussie military to help enforce Sydney COVID-19 lockdown
The efficacy of face masks and respirators against coronaviruses
Italians protest 'Green Pass' proof of COVID immunity
Securing America Against the Next COVID-19


SITUATION REPORTS / OFFICIAL CASE NUMBERS

HealthData.gov
World Health Organization
Centers for Disease Control (U.S.)
Johns Hopkins CSSE (Interactive map updated multiple times daily)


File photo taken in July, 2016 showing Chinese H-6K bomber patrolling islands and reefs including Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. (XINHUA NEWS AGENCY) - ALLOW IMAGES

Commentary / Analysis / Research

July 31, 2021

To Beat China In The Gray Zone,
You Have To Be There

During Desert Shield and Desert Storm my skipper took delight in regaling ship riders with the wonders of battleships, ours in particular. This old sea-dog had a standard talking point to the effect that “we got to the Gulf fast—and we’re going to stay here!” We dissolute youth mocked the Old Man for his banal words at the time, but over the years I’ve come to realize there was sublime wisdom in them. If you want to control something you have to be there to control it. Showing up intermittently and going away will not cut it if your opponent is there, in force, all the time, to impose its will.

~ READ MORE HERE ~

Coalition Warfare From The Boxer
Rebellion To The Future Battlefield

As Sino-American relations come under increased strain, scholars, civil authorities, servicemembers, and strategists have theorized about how the United States can bring various instruments of national power to bear against the People’s Republic of China. Some have speculated, channeling concerns of the National Defense Strategy Commission, that armed conflict with China might spell decisive defeat for US forces. Preoccupation with the pacing threat of the century has even infiltrated popular print culture. The novel 2034 is a New York Times bestseller and has captured scores of readers through its gripping, Tom Clancy–esque tale of great power war. Too many of these considerations, in imagining some unrealized future, fail to offer historical perspective; they neglect the fact that the United States has deployed forces to China before.

~ READ MORE HERE ~

How Washington Boosted Beijing’s Quest for Tech Dominance

Since 2018, tightening U.S. trade restrictions have threatened the viability of some of China’s biggest firms, fueling anxiety in Beijing and forcing Chinese companies to reinvent the U.S. technologies they can no longer access.

~ READ MORE HERE ~


Fleet and Marine Tracker Map as of July 26, 2021  - ALLOW IMAGES
 
USNI Fleet and Marine Tracker
July 31, 2021

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of July 26, 2021 based on U.S. Navy, public data provided by the U.S. Naval Institute, and open source reporting. In cases where a CSG or ARG is conducting disaggregated operations, the chart reflects the location of the capital ship.


U.S. Marines with the All Domain Reconnaissance Detachment, 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, leap from a CH-53E Super Stallion assigned to Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 165, 11th MEU, during helocast training at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California, July 15, 2021. Helocasting is a method for quick and efficient entry into the water from a helicopter, during amphibious operations. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Seth Rosenberg
 
World News Roundup
July 31, 2021

AMERICAS

First group of Afghan interpreters arrive in the US
‘Complete disaster’: Inside Biden’s chaotic evac of Afghan interpreters
China names 'Wolf Warrior' diplomat as new ambassador in DC
US' tough line on China behind Beijing's choice of diplomatic veteran
Biden’s 6-Month Clock On Russia-U.S. Nuke Talks Starts Now
How Washington Boosted Beijing’s Quest for Tech Dominance
Biden met in secret with exiled Belarusian opposition leader
Charges approved against Canadian ISIS fighter detained in Syria
A-10 Warthogs Are About To Operate From A U.S. Highway
DOJ launches task force to combat threats against election workers
New Cuba-related sanctions announced by U.S. Treasury
Peru: new president appoints Marxist as prime minister
Intel chief warns of two-year chip shortage

EUROPE

Russia's risky flybys may be attempts at 'baiting us into shooting first,'
Dozens Of NATO Warship Positions Near Russia Being Faked, But Why?
Denmark could face legal action over attempts to return Syrian refugees
Brit who fought ISIS warns of threat from imprisoned ISIS is Syria
Armenia wants Russian army outposts on Azerbaijan border amid tensions
France, UK sign new pact to protect against Channel terror threat
U.S. F-35s on U.K. Carrier a Powerful Message of Commitment
Iceland: Some COVID restrictions may stay for as long as fifteen years
Two Europeans killed in incident on board oil tanker off Oman coast

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

Blinken warns talks with Iran can't go on indefinitely
Troops to stay put in Syria even as Biden seeks to end ‘forever wars’
Heavy clashes grip southern Syria’s Deraa province
Senior ISIS member arrested in Greece with Morocco’s help
Iran’s supreme leader criticizes US as nuclear talks stalled
S.Africa sending about 1,500 troops to fight Mozambique jihadists
Pushed by food crisis, DPRK to restore hotline with South
Tunisia in political turmoil as president sacks more officials
Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: Fighting escalates despite ceasefire

ASIA

Philippines renews key military agreement with the United States
Amid fears of leak, China nuclear plant shut down for ‘maintenance’
British And Chinese Carriers Both In The Tense South China Sea
US sends warship through the Taiwan Strait for 7th time this year
U.S. Coast Guard Commissions 3 Fast Response Cutters in Guam
Japan Signals More Robust Security Posture in New Defence White Paper
What It Takes For U.S. Jets To Keep Fighting In Afghanistan
Pakistan’s support for Taliban now in open view
Militant group ETIM, targeted by China, remains active in Afghanistan
US Defense Chief Seeks to Advance Ties with Vietnam
Azerbaijan, Armenia Trade Blame Over Latest Deadly Border Clashes
China and the Taliban Begin Their Romance
China’s emergency naval exercise over Taiwan revealed
Chinese military drills simulate amphibious landing and island seizure
Russian, Chinese troops to hold joint drills in China’s north in August
Fully Fund The Guam Defense System
US Pays $4B to Afghan Forces; Who Is Watching?
Japan Challenges Russia in Antarctic


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Book - Three Seconds Until Midnight by Dr. Steven Hatfill et al..

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Travel Security Resources

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The U.S. Dept. of State Travel Website is the authoritative federal source for information on the security situation at travel destinations worldwide. With tensions rapidly increasing in most regions, readers planning international travel, even to such common destinations as Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean Islands, are strongly encouraged to research on the security situation at your destination prior to departure.

Active USGOV Travel Notices
Worldwide Caution


Active USGOV Travel Advisories
Alphabetical Country List
Dynamic Map



Other USGOV Travel Resources
Traveler's Checklist
Smart Traveler Enrollment Prog (STEP)
Travelers with Special Considerations
Travel to High-Risk Areas
Faith-Based Travel Information
Information for Women Travelers
Cruise Ship Passengers
Students Abroad
Your Health Abroad
Driving and Road Safety Abroad

Overseas Security Advisory Council Logo - ALLOW IMAGES

The Department of State’s Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) provides a variety of resources to enhance the safety and security of the U.S. private sector businesses and organizations operating abroad.

CDC Logo - ALLOW IMAGES

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website is the authoritative federal source for information on current health issues related to specific destinations worldwide. These issues may arise from disease outbreaks, special events or gatherings, natural disasters, or other conditions that may affect travelers’ health.

Foreign Sources of Travel Guidance

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Take Advantage of These Resources

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