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August 26, 2023
A weekly supplement to the AlertsUSA
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WEEKLY THREAT AND ALERT ROUNDUP
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Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have surged troops to their borders with Belarus. Image: DepositPhotos - ALLOW IMAGES

Tensions High On NATO’s Border With Belarus
U.S. Embassy Warns Americans to Leave

August 26, 2023
On August 21st, the following related Flash SMS
message was sent to AlertsUSA subscriber mobile devices:

8/21 - US Embassy Belarus issues security alert warning of closure of border crossings w several Baltic states. Urges US citizens to depart immediately. See email.

 
What You Need To Know

Early this week AlertsUSA subscribers were notified of a security alert issued by the U.S. Embassy in Belarus, warning American citizens in the country to depart immediately. The alert follows the closure of multiple border crossing points from Belarus into Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Those closures come as a result of the increasing hybrid threats from within Belarus, including a buildup of Russian forces in the country, the presence of thousands of Wagner Group mercenaries, and repeated provocations and attempted illegal border crossings.

Curiously, than two days after the embassy alert was issued, news broke that a business jet owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, crashed while en route from Moscow to Saint Petersburg. Prigozhin name was on the passenger list and is presumed dead.

Readers are reminded that on June 23rd, the Wagner Group, a Russian government-funded private military company, abandoned their positions in Ukraine and staged a rebellion led by Prigozhin after a breakdown of the relationship with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

During their advance towards Moscow, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko brokered a settlement with Prigozhin, allowing Wagner forces to return to their base in Belarus in exchange for a guarantee of their safety.

According to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War:

"Putin's almost certain order for the Russian MoD to shoot down Prigozhin's plane is likely a public attempt to reassert his dominance and exact vengeance for the humiliation that the Wagner Group's armed rebellion on June 24 caused Putin and the Russian MoD."

Both Ukraine and the Kremlin have denied any involvement in the incident.

While initial reporting indicated that the plane was shot out of the sky, according to the Pentagon there's 'no information to suggest there was a surface-to-air missile' takedown of the aircraft, though a preliminary intelligence assessment concluded the plane was downed by an "intentional explosion."

Social media channels linked to the Wagner Group report that Wagner fighters are vowing revenge on Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu over Prigozhin's death.

On Friday, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko stated that the “core” of the Wagner mercenary group -- about 10,000 fighters -- will remain in his country.

"Wagner lived. Wagner is living. And Wagner will live in Belarus. The core remains here. As long as we need this unit, they will live and work with us."

AlertsUSA continues to monitor the situation around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers of any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.


AlertsUSA

SMS ALERTS FROM THIS WEEK
NOT DETAILED IN THIS NEWSLETTER ISSUE

8/23 - At least 9 people shot at Cook's Corner bar in Trabuco Canyon (Orange County), CA. Shooter is down. Massive law enforcement response. AlertsUSA monitoring..

8/23 - Donald Trump to surrender to GA authorities 8/24 at the Fulton County Jail, 901 Rice St NW, Atlanta. Time unspecified. Hard lockdown of area. Caution urged.

8/21 - Tropical storm watches / warnings issued for portions of the Texas coast with the approach of potential tropical cyclone. Strengthening is forecast. See email.

8/20 - Shallow M5.0 earthquake, 7 km SE of Ojai, CA. AlertsUSA monitoring for damage reports. There is no tsunami danger from this event.

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An F-16 assigned to the 162nd Wing, Morris Air National Guard Base, Tucson, Ariz., flies during a training mission. Image: DoD - ALLOW IMAGES

Ukraine War Update

August 26, 2023
 
What You Need To Know

This week the Department of Defense announced the U.S. will begin training Ukrainians to fly and maintain F-16 fighter jets. The training is expected to begin in October at the Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona, and will be facilitated by the Air National Guard's 162nd Wing.

According to the DoD, the U.S. is preempting any training capacity constraints in Denmark and the Netherlands' F-16 training pipeline to ensure the aircraft are fielded to Ukraine as quickly as possible.

The complete U.S. training pipeline will likely take 5-8 months, depending upon the pilots' proficiency coming into the course. The training includes a series of courses ranging from basic flight training to instruction on fighter fundamentals, weapons employment, combat maneuvering and tactical intercepts among other concepts.

Beyond flight training, the F-16s require significant logistics and maintenance training for ground support personnel that ensures the aircraft remain combat capable.

All of the above starts with assuring everyone (trainers, trainees, ATC, etc..) can freely communicate in a common language with the added field-specific, platform-specific lexicon. Thus, prior to flight training, the pilots will receive English language training at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas beginning in September.

According to the Institute for the Study of War:

Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and are advancing. Russian milbloggers are expressing concern over a lack of reinforcements and troop rotations in the area. There are also reports of a Russian unit suffering significant losses due to inadequate support on an island in the Dnipro River delta. There is growing outrage against the Russian military command in some parts of the Russian information space.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence:

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has put Russian forces under pressure in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine. Despite this, Russia’s Western Group of Forces has continued small-scale attacks in the north-east, in the Kupiansk-Lyman sector, and has made some limited local advances.

As Ukraine continues to gradually gain ground in the south, Russia’s doctrine suggests that it will attempt to regain the initiative by pivoting back to an operational level offensive. Kupiansk-Lyman is one potential area for this.

There is a realistic possibility Russia will increase the intensity of its offensive efforts on the Kupiansk-Lyman axis in the next two months, probably with the objective of advancing west to the Oskil River and creating a buffer zone around Luhansk Oblast.


AH-64D Apache Longbow helicopters assigned to the 1st Battalion, 3rd Aviation Regiment "Viper Battalion," 12th Combat Aviation Brigade land at the Katterbach Army Airfield, Germany. Image: DoD - ALLOW IMAGES

Commentary / Analysis / Research

August 26, 2023

Global Firepower 2023

Since 2006 GlobalFirepower (GFP) has provided a unique analytical display of data concerning 145 modern military powers. The GFP ranking is based on each nation's potential war-making capability across land, sea, and air fought by conventional means. The results incorporate values related to manpower, equipment, natural resources, finances, and geography represented by 60+ individual factors used in formulating the finalized GFP ranks - which provide an interesting glimpse into an increasingly volatile global landscape where war seems all but an inevitability.

~ READ MORE HERE (GF) ~

China's Influence Activity in the US Is Unprecedented

"The system is blinking red right now," an unnamed senior FBI official was quoted as saying in a recent report from the Center for Strategic and International studies (CSIS). "We have not seen this level of Chinese intelligence and influence activity in and around the U.S. homeland ever."

~ READ MORE HERE (Gatestone Institute) ~

Public Health Is a National Security Issue

On 11 May 2023, the federal public health emergency related to the coronavirus expired. As U.S. citizens breathe a sigh of relief that the COVID-19 pandemic might actually be over, it is a good time to review the nation’s preparedness for similar emerging national security threats. Bottom-line: “Domestic preparedness” remains an illusion.

~ READ MORE HERE (US Naval Institute) ~


Fleet and Marine Tracker Map as of Aug 21 2023.  - ALLOW IMAGES
U.S. Navy Fleet and Marine Tracker
Aug 21, 2023

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of August 21, 2023 based on U.S. Navy, public data provided by the U.S. Naval Institute, and open source reporting.


The Coast Guard cutter Forward transits near an iceberg in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 22, 2023, during Op Nanook. The Canadian-led exercise offers Coast Guardsmen an opportunity to work with partners to advance shared maritime objectives. Image: DoD - ALLOW IMAGES
World News Roundup
August 26, 2023

AMERICAS

FBI ranks 'Black Identity Extremists' bigger threat than Al Qaeda
The US is presently involved in 15 ‘shadow wars’: Here’s where and why
Video shows illegal migrants landing on Jupiter Beach, Florida
GOP talk of military action in Mexico sparks dire warnings
Mexico whining about the Texas’ floating barrier along Rio Grand
Open floodgates at Arizona border allow thousands of migrants to walk in
China slams US call to ban anti-satellite missile tests as 'fake arms control'
US to sell aircraft tracking systems to Taiwan with PLA's J-20 fighter in mind
Panama eyes new measures as flow through Darien Gap hits 300K this year
Guatemala president-elect, deputy facing death threats: rights body

EUROPE

Russia's moving nuclear weapons to Belarus, shifting regional security
Two injured near Moscow amid Ukrainian drone strikes
UK war fears as British Army boasts fewer tanks than neutral Switzerland
Russian court extends U.S. reporter's detention by 3 months
Probe possible poisonings of Russian activist and journalists abroad
Intentional explosion downed Prigozhin’s plane, says US intelligence
Stewardess' post from airport waiting for 'mystery repairs' to be completed
Wagner Group vows 'revenge' after Prigozhin's death
I told Prigozhin to watch out, says Belarusian president
Russian general linked to the head of Wagner Group is reportedly dismissed
Ukraine says it launched 'special operation' in Russian-occupied Crimea
Russia says Ukrainian boat destroyed in new Black Sea clash
Nagorno-Karabakh accuses Azerbaijan of throttling supply lines
Flames devour forests and homes as wildfires leave 20 dead in Greece
Spanish police make record cocaine bust in Ecuadorean banana shipment
Greece wildfires: 79 people arrested for arson

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

Netanyahu forbids Israeli war chief from meeting US officials
Iran stages 'electronic warfare' drills against mock enemy drones
Turkish airstrike in northern Iraq kills 4 Kurdish insurgents
Kenya Power confirms major outage across several parts of the country
Niger allows Mali, Burkina Faso troops to enter its territory in case of attack
Inside Mali: What now for the country that bet its security on Wagner?
Turkish airstrike in northern Iraq kills 4 Kurdish insurgents
US condemns Israeli minister Ben Gvir's 'inflammatory' Palestinian comments
U.S. tells Israel mega-deal with Saudis must incl concessions to Palestinians
Saudi-Israel normalization not so imminent, says White House

ASIA / OCEANIA

Japan tells citizens in China to lie low after Fukushima release
In Japan's neighbors, fear and frustration over radioactive water release
North Korea fails in latest attempt to put spy satellite into orbit
N. Korea maintains active biological weapons program: DoD report
N. Korean plane departs from Beijing in a sign Pyongyang is reopening
Australia to conduct more joint patrols with Philippines in South China Sea
Huh? Taiwan to allow chinese tourists, business people to visit again
U.S. envoy to eat Fukushima fish in show of solidarity and safety
Philippines resupplies Spratlys shoal troops
Pakistan lodges protest with India over killing of civilian along LoC
Modi and Xi meeting: India and China agree to 'de-escalate' border tensions

PUBLIC HEALTH

China halts seafood imports from Japan over water release from Fukushima
S. Korea to toughen tests on farmed seafood amid Fukushima woes
Russian region partially sealed off over anthrax outbreak
Dr. Robert Malone says new Covid push is just more ‘fear porn'
CDC advisers set to vote on updated COVID vaccines next month


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Hurricane and Tropical Storm Campfire Graph - ALLOW IMAGES.

Peak Prosperity with Dr. Chris Martenson.

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Travel Security Resources

With tensions rapidly increasing in most regions, readers planning international travel, even to such common destinations as Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean Islands, are strongly encouraged to research the security situation at your destination prior to booking, and again prior to departure.

The U.S. Dept. of State Travel Website is the authoritative federal source for information on the security situation at travel destinations worldwide.

Active USGOV Travel Notices

Active USGOV Travel Advisories

Other USGOV Travel Resources

Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) - Registering your overseas trip with the Department of State STEP program allows you to receive information from the Embassy about safety conditions in your destination country, helping you make informed decisions about your travel plans.

Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) - Joining OSAC provides a variety of USGOV resources to enhance the safety and security of the U.S. private sector businesses and organizations operating abroad.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) - The CDC travel website is the authoritative federal source for information on current health issues related to specific destinations worldwide. These issues may arise from disease outbreaks, special events or gatherings, natural disasters, or other conditions that may affect travelers’ health.

Foreign Sources of Travel Guidance

See what other governments are telling their own citizens about the safety and security aspects of your destination.



Take Advantage of These Resources

Our social media channels provide a steady steam of important news and resources between issues of Threat Journal with little or no overlap of content. Combined with the AlertsUSA service for instant mobile notification of the really bad developments, you have an unmatched set of tools to keep yourself fully up to speed on the nation's threat environment. With times getting worse by the day, we urge you to utilize these resources.


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Ezekiel 33:3 - "Then if anyone hears the trumpet but does not heed the warning and the sword comes and takes their life, their blood will be on their own head."

 

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