China: Existential Threat to America
This is a clear indication that senior Beijing leaders know they are running out of time. It is really no mystery why they may feel this way. China's demography is in the initial stages of accelerated decline. We know that China's environment is exhausted. Think scarcity of water, despite all the flooding. Also, China's people are restive. China is losing support around the world. The Chinese economy is in distress. That was true even before COVID-19.
The reason this is important is because, up to now, the primary basis of legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party has been the continual delivery of prosperity. Without the assurance of prosperity, the only remaining basis of legitimacy is nationalism. Nationalism, as a practical matter, means military misadventure abroad.
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What Will the Elections Do to the US-Iran Conflict?
The Iranians understand that if Trump is reelected, they may have no choice but to reengage in negotiations with the United States. Based on his recent statements, including some uttered during the peace ceremony between Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, Trump appears eager to get back to the negotiating table. And he may even try to get Senate approval (67 votes) to convert his deal into a treaty – with buy-in from the Israelis this time.
Former vice president Joseph Biden, if elected, is also expected to quickly negotiate a new deal with Iran, with help from the Europeans. Some of his advisers have circulated working papers with the aim of getting “back to the JCPOA,” the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. There is also talk of returning to the interim 2013 deal, the Joint Plan of Action, as a show of good faith while negotiating a new deal. Some of these Biden advisers appear to have not learned from their own diplomatic missteps during the Iran negotiations of 2013–2015. In some cases, their working papers use remarkably similar language to US memos from the Obama years.
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North Korea Has at Least 6,000 Hackers (And Might Strike the U.S.)
North Korean hackers have stolen millions of dollars in cryptocurrency in multiple heists, with the U.S. filing suit to reclaim the associated accounts. And more attacks might could be on the way.
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