News broke this week that the Pentagon is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine. Patriot, which is an acronym for "Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target," is the U.S. Army's primary High to Medium Air Defense (HIMAD) system. Capable of targeting aircraft, cruise missiles, drones (such as the Iranian-made Shaheds), as well as shorter-range ballistic missiles, the Patriot is one of the most widely operated and reliable air missile defense systems available.

Russia's foreign ministry was quick to respond, saying that if the U.S. ships the sophisticated systems to Ukraine, Moscow would consider it a “provocative move” that could prompt a response.

The Pentagon dismissed Russia's warning.

Patriots have long been deployed in neighboring Poland, but Ukrainian leaders have been persistent in requesting them on their own soil amid a major uptick in recent Russian aerial attacks.

Readers are reminded that back in November, Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, issued a direct threat saying, “If, as [NATO Secretary-General Jens] Stoltenberg hinted, NATO supplies Kyiv with Patriot complexes along with NATO personnel, they will immediately become a legitimate target for our armed forces.”

If that development got Russia a little riled, this next one ought to really get them spun up.

JDAMs to Ukraine

This week it is reported that the Biden administration is considering providing Ukraine with advanced electronic equipment that turns unguided (or "dumb") aerial munitions into smart bombs capable of precision strikes on Russian military positions.

Known as a Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) kit, this is a "bolt-on" guidance package, the major components of which consist of a tail section with aerodynamic control surfaces and a combined inertial guidance system and GPS guidance control unit. JDAM can be launched from very low to very high altitudes in a dive, toss or loft and in straight and level flight with an on-axis or off-axis delivery. JDAM enables multiple weapons to be directed against single or multiple targets on a single pass.

U.S. Troops To Ukraine...

The Biden administration is considering an increase in the US troop presence WITHIN Ukraine as part of a program to attempt tracking the billions of dollars in weaponry being shipped to the country. The move comes amid a warning by Republicans of impending audits after they take over the House of Representatives in January.

NBC News cites unnamed U.S. defense officials as saying that “The Pentagon has a couple of dozen U.S. troops in Ukraine, including a very small number already assigned to making sure weapons reach their intended recipients."

On Wednesday, Politico revealed the contents of a 9-page US diplomatic cable which admitted the near impossibility of adequately overseeing weaponry once it enters the country.

Western Arms On The Market

Less than two months ago, Finland was among the first European countries to document the spread of weaponry from the West turning up in the hands of criminal elements outside Ukraine. According to Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation, “Weapons shipped [by various countries] to Ukraine have also been found in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands.”

There are also numerous unconfirmed reports of weapons provided to Ukraine by NATO countries being discovered on black markets around the world.

AlertsUSA continues to monitor the domestic and international threat environment around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers, via SMS messages to their mobile devices, of new alerts, warnings and advisories or any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.

According to the Institute for the Study of War:

Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and carried out one of the largest missile attacks on Kyiv to date. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny stated that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 of 76 Russian missiles, of which 72 were cruise missiles of the Kh-101, Kalibr, and Kh-22 types, and four guided missiles of the Kh-59 and Kh-31P types.

The Kyiv City Military Administration reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed 37 of 40 missiles targeting Kyiv. Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian missiles struck nine energy infrastructure facilities and some residential buildings in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces launched most of their missiles from the Black and Caspian seas and the Engels airfield in Saratov Oblast. Russian forces are likely intensifying their strikes on Kyiv to stir up societal discontent in the capital, but these missile attacks are unlikely to break Ukrainian will.

According to the UK Ministry of Defense:

As shown by imagery, in recent weeks, Russian forces have continued to expend considerable effort to construct extensive defensive positions along the front line. They have likely prioritized the northern sector around the town of Svatove [click on map below to expand].

The Russian constructions follow traditional military plans for entrenchment, largely unchanged since the Second World War. Such constructions are likely to be vulnerable to modern, precision indirect strikes.

The construction of major defensive lines is further illustration of Russia’s reversion to positional warfare that has been largely abandoned by most modern Western militaries in recent decades.

U.S. Ability to Counter the Russian Threat in the Arctic

From the end of World War II until the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States and Russia stood on opposing sides of a potential conflict. Through the U.S. strategies of containment and limited war, mutual destruction was avoided, and the spread of communism was held back. Eventually, economic pressure, partially caused by the arms race and partially deriving from the fallacy of communist economics, destroyed the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, it was replaced with the new Russia, which has similar expansionist goals.

In Europe, the U.S. strategies of containment and limited war are once again being played out, in Ukraine. The U.S. and its allies, the EU and NATO, are supporting the defense of a sovereign nation which has been invaded by Russia. Meanwhile, Russia has other ambitions which could pose a threat to U.S. ambitions.

~ READ MORE HERE (Modern Diplomacy) ~

NATO’s Maritime Vigilance

Winter, 1968. A multinational force of American, British, Dutch, and Norwegian ships sails the North Atlantic, defending NATO’s shores under a shared flag — a first in modern history.

Five decades later, when NATO’s core mission is more relevant than it has been in a generation, the alliance’s navy is adrift. NATO still maintains standing naval forces, units that are directly under the bloc’s day-to-day operational command. Yet even in this time of high tension, very few combatants are attached to the alliance’s two major standing naval groups. As of mid-December, three combatants formed Group One, with one ship each from the Dutch, Danish, and French navies. Only two combatants comprised the Group Two (from the United States and Spain). This is not an overwhelming force presence for the NATO at-sea commanders tasked with standing the alliance’s maritime vigil. Rather, it is a shadow of the alliance’s historic approach to maritime security.

~ READ MORE HERE (War On The Rocks) ~

The Fall of Russia

Exactly one hundred years after the birth of the Soviet Union on December 30, 1922, we could well be witnessing its second collapse. Putin's attempt to reconstitute a privileged sphere of influence around Russia is turning into a catastrophe. And this catastrophe may only be the beginning. It is becoming increasingly difficult to see how Russia can emerge from its Ukrainian adventure on top. The word "historic" is often overused to describe current geopolitical developments. But sometimes it is well deserved.

~ READ MORE HERE (Institute Montaigne) ~

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of December 12, 2022 based on U.S. Navy, public data provided by the U.S. Naval Institute, and open source reporting.

AMERICAS

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EUROPE

Serbia seeks troop deployment in Kosovo
Ukraine's top generals believe the next Russian offensive on Kyiv
Russian commander suggests nukes as 'only' option to win war
Kremlin vows to take out Patriot batteries if us sends to Ukraine
Russia warns of "consequences" if U.S. sends Patriot missiles to Ukraine
Russian mil expert urges preparation for a potential war with NATO in 2023
Royal Marines have taken part in 'high-risk' covert operations in Ukraine
Bombing of Putin’s most feared fighters infuriates Russia
Ukrainian drones are making life hell for Russian troops in Crimea
Putin preparing major offensive in new year, Ukraine defence minister warns
Russia to join bidding for Saudi’s first nuclear power station
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Newly freed Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout supports Russia's war in Ukraine
Captured Russian docs reveal plan to subjugate Ukraine in 10 days
Ukrainian forces damage key bridge near Melitopol, reports say
NATO multinational battlegroup in Bulgaria reaches full capability

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

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Iran plans to limit range of missiles sent to Russia, Israeli officials say
China is helping Zimbabwe to build a surveillance state
Burkina Faso contracts Russian mercenaries, alleges Ghana
UN Irish peacekeeper killed in shooting in southern Lebanon
Last French troops leave Central African Republic
Chadian army arrests officers, says “macabre project” foiled
Namibian rare earth minerals project targets 2026 production
Libya PM admits role in extraditing Lockerbie suspect to U.S
Police officer killed during protests in Jordan over high fuel prices
Congo militias take fight to M23 rebels

ASIA

U.S., S. Korea vow to counter N. Korean cyber threats
U.S. military opens space force unit in S. Korea
U.S., South Korea, Japan to curb illicit North Korea cyber activities
Why Taiwanese are among Ukraine's foreign fighters
N. Korea tests new rocket motor for long-range missiles
US adds 36 Chinese companies to export blacklist
Vietnam expands outposts in contested Spratly Islands
Diplomats: UN blocks Myanmar military from taking UN seat
UN says funds for flood-hit Pakistan to run out in weeks
India test-fires Agni-V missile amid border tensions with China
Sri Lanka's economy shrinks 11.8% in 2nd-worst quarterly performance
1 killed, 12 injured in cross-border firing from Afghanistan at Chaman

PUBLIC HEALTH

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