Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed victory on Thursday in the biggest battle of the Ukraine war, declaring the port city of Mariupol "liberated." This, despite estimates of approximately 2,500 Ukrainian troops and civilians still holding out inside a 15-mile labyrinth of underground tunnels, passages, and bomb shelters beneath the Azovstal steel plant in the city.
This underground network has allowed defenders to maneuver freely to repel Russian attacks. Before the war, Ukrainian authorities prepared for the offensive by building up stockpiles of food and water at the facility.
Putin said that, for now, he would not risk sending troops into the tunnel network, instead preferring to isolate the holdouts "so that not even a fly comes through." His defense minster said the plant was blocked off, while giving yet another prediction that the site could be taken in days.
Ukrainian authorities said Thursday that Putin’s decision not to storm the Azovstal plant indicated that the attacking troops were in a weakened state.
“This situation means the following: They cannot physically capture Azovstal. They have understood this. They suffered huge losses there.”
- Oleksiy Arestovich, adviser to Ukrainian President Zelenski.
Letting the Cat Out of the Bag
On Friday, a senior Russian military commander told members of a defense industry forum that the goal of Russia’s new offensive is to seize control of southern Ukraine and form a land bridge to Crimea, indicating that Russia plans a permanent occupation of Ukrainian territory taken in the war.
Remarks by General Rustam Minnekayev, acting commander of Russia's central military district, also indicated goals of accessing neighboring Moldova through the disputed, separatist region of Transnistria and blocking Ukraine from access to the sea.
General Minnekayev's remarks, accidental or intentional, directly contradict earlier claims from Vladimir Putin that Russia was not planning to occupy Ukrainian cities permanently.
The change in strategy also suggests the Kremlin is scrambling after its failed attempt to sack the capital Kyiv and bring about a change in Ukraine's leadership.
Invasion Progress
Below is a conflict map as of April 23 based on open source reporting. Compare this map with that of last week.
AlertsUSA cautions readers that the conflict in Eastern Europe has potential to get much worse, and spillover into neighboring NATO nations is a possibility. Caution is urged if traveling to Europe in the coming months.
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